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​​Trump on Track to Sweep South Carolina
​​Trump on Track to Sweep South Carolina
Oct 22, 2024 4:34 AM

  In the lead-up to South Carolinas primary contest on Saturday, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley held a news conference to tell supporters that shes not going anywhere and is committed to offering voters an alternative to former president Donald Trump.

  Meanwhile, her presidential rivalwho has a 21 lead in her home statespoke at an evangelical conference in Nashville, touting his record on issues important to conservative Christians during his first term and pledging to continue in his second term.

  Trump pledged to 1,500 attendees at the National Religious Broadcasters NRB convention that despite threats from the Left, no one will be touching the cross of Christ under the Trump administration, I swear to you.

  Christian voters had a good relationship with Nikki and they liked Nikki, but they do love Trump, said Chad Connelly, who was at the NRB gathering.

  The South Carolina native and former two-term chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party is the founder of the conservative Christian organization Faith Wins, which involves 16,000 pastors in evangelical voter registration.

  Connelly said the thing he hears most from faith leaders is that Trump did what he said he was going to do thats a rare politician. Thats the number one comment.

  Specific policies come up more than others: Trumps releasing a list of potential Supreme Court nominees in 2016 and then nominating three conservative judges to the court, as well as his move of the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

  But more than any particular list of issues motivating this election, multiple sources described a deep sense of personal loyalty that GOP primary voters feel for Trump, something that has intensified along with his legal troubles.

  People felt like these are political hit jobs, Connelly said. Those things are helping him in the weirdest way. I wouldnt have predicted it. But they are absolutely helping him. It has brought out a fervor and an excitement. Ive never seen this depth of support and enthusiasm.

  In 2016, white evangelicals dispersed their votes in South Carolinas GOP primary: Trump gained 34 percent of the vote, Sen. Ted Cruz gained 26 percent, and Marco Rubio gained 21 percent. Political watchers dont expect much of a divide this time around.

  There are evangelicals in South Carolina that are somewhat suspicious of Trump and are probably supporting Nikki Haley, or are going to reluctantly support Trump, Tony Beam, director of church engagement at North Greenville University and policy director for the South Carolina Baptist Convention, told CT. But I would say the largest group are those who are probably going to be pretty solidly behind Trump for the primary and for president.

  The state has plenty of evangelicals in name only who are fervent Trump supporters, Beam said. But others are in church every Sunday, I serve on committees, Im serious about my faithtype believers that believe Trump is the answer.

  Danielle Vinson, a politics and international affairs professor at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina, has noticed tension within churches, though she believes the excitement for Trump is more uniform in rural churches compared to their urban and suburban counterparts.

  In her evangelical church, shes at times been very mystified by little old ladies completely rationalizing Trump, but they do, she said. But I have noticed a small smattering of very vocal opponents to Trump in those very same congregations. So its not a universal love, but I also think theres more enthusiasm than you might find in other parts of the country.

  More notable divides may fall along socioeconomic lines.

  I do think South Carolina has more of what we would traditionally view evangelical voters to be, Nicholas Higgins, chair of the political science department at North Greenville University, told CT. I just think that the information is going to be less useful because its getting mixed with other types of groups.

  Higgins has observed that in his conversations with students or professors, theres a marked preference for Haley over Trump at times. But when he speaks with blue-collar workers at his church or elsewhere, hes noticed more support for Trump.

  Its not ubiquitous, he said, but its more marked than divisions along faith: I find Christians of higher education tend to support Haley, Christians with lower education tend to support Trump. Seculars of higher education tend to support Haley, seculars of lower education tend to support Trump. I think thats where youre finding greater variation.

  There are some rumblings that Haleys reason for powering through, despite the losses, is the possibility of a shakeup in the race due to her rivals outstanding issues in state and federal courts. Trump faces 91 felony counts in two state courts and two federal districts, as well as a civil suit in New York.

  There are also states that have filed cases using an obscure provision in the 14th Amendment to argue a legal theory that Trump is ineligible for appearing on the 2024 ballot due to his role in the January 6, 2021, US Capitol insurrection. Its not clear how they will rule, though justices seemed skeptical during oral arguments earlier this month that the state could exclude Trump from the ballot in Colorado.

  Its going to be nigh impossible for Haley to pull up enough to prevent Trump from getting the majority of delegates, Higgins said. But he said her strategy may still be to be the next highest delegate holder to show viability, in the event that Trumps legal issues take him out of the running.

  She may be hoping, Higgins said, that the other side is going to have to forfeit. And so coming in second, getting the silver medal, then finding out the gold medal winner took a pile of performance-enhancing drugsyou get the gold medal.

  Former state representative Garry Smith told CT he hears from Christian friends who are opting out of engaging politically at the moment. Theres lots of confusion in the church, he said. But as November draws closer, he believes tension will dissipate between the various wings of the Republican party for more focus on the objectivewhich is to elect candidates of the party.

  Chip Felkel, a South Carolina native who grew up in what he described as a deep water Southern Baptist church and now attends a Methodist church, said he finds it hard to recognize the evangelical and Republican circles he grew up in.

  I will never completely understand the connection from the evangelical community with Donald Trump, Felkel told CT. The evangelical communityhes their champion.

  Within the Trump party, they liken him to King David. Some even go so far as a Second Coming, and I know thats extreme, but I have heard and Ive read where people think hes anointed by God to lead their effort, Felkel said.

  Hes worked for multiple Republican campaigns in South Carolina and is a longtime conservative GOP consultant. Hes not associated with a campaign this cycle.

  But Felkelas well as other white Christian voters who are skeptical of former president Donald Trumpare set to be the minority in this weekends South Carolina GOP primary.

  Look, I mean, Trump will win big here. Theres no question about that, Felkel said.

  After South Carolina, Michigan holds its contest on February 27.

  The next landmark in the election is Super Tuesday, which falls on March 5. Fifteen states will vote, and the result will account for 874 of the necessary 2,429 Republican delegates. While it wont be enough for Trump to sweep the nomination, Super Tuesday is likely Haleys last shot at proving her viability.

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