Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
The surprising, economic reason 157,000 British children were never born
The surprising, economic reason 157,000 British children were never born
Jan 13, 2026 1:18 PM

Students of the free market say that economics is merely human action. Economists also understand that policies have unintended consequences – such as reducing the number of children born in a nation. The Adam Smith Institute, based in London, has released a new report describing one such consequence due, in part, to central planning and overregulation.

The British housing crisis has inadvertently discouraged women from having 157,000 children, its report finds. Young couples in the UK increasingly struggle to afford a home of their own. The average price of a home in London has increased from £55,000 in 1986 to £492,000 today (approximately $71,800 to $642,250 U.S.). While that is due in part to urbanization, the ASI notes that some government policies artificially reduce the supply even as demand rises.

The new ASI study found that rising housing prices increased fertility for homeowners but decreased birthrates among those who rent. While the former is more confident in its economic future, the latter is struggling to save up for a home. Higher prices require higher deposits. In the meantime, the housing that couples can afford may not be large enough to modate all the children they wish to have.

ASI’s analysis found that “a 10% rise in house prices resulted in 4.9% decrease in births amongst renters and a 2.8% increase in births amongst home owners over the whole 18-year time period [1996 to 2014]. The net effect is a 1.3% decrease in births over the entire period, equating to approximately 157,000 missing children.”

Unfortunately, “in the ten years between 2004 and 2014 homeownership fell from 60% to 35% among 25-34 year olds – the key childbearing demographic,” the report, written by Andrew Sabisky, notes.

While careful to stipulate that child-bearing decisions are not exclusively, or even primarily, economic, they state that family size is driven in part by financial considerations. “When weighing the decision as to whether or not to have another [child], parents who simply cannot afford to do so will often not, no matter how much they might want another baby for other reasons.”

As newborns e more scarce, the average age creeps upward, and the number of Brits aged 85 and older will more than double in the next 18 years.

While a highly regulated-and-subsidized housing market discourages some Brits from having children, that population drop will further undermine the British economy. Any decrease in population levels exerts significant economic pressures on a nation with an old-age pension system like the UK (or the U.S.):

Lower mortality and fertility rates imply a rise in the dependency ratio (the ratio of non-workers to workers). The consequences for public finances are obvious. 55% of welfare spending currently goes to pensioners (as of 2014/15). In an ageing population this number is likely to rise even further. As of 2014 there were 3.2 working-age people for every pensioner; by 2037 this number is projected to fall to 2.7 (House of Commons Library, 2015). The rise in the numbers of very old people – as discussed above – presents an additional burden. The average 85 year old is estimated to cost the NHS three times as much as the average 65-74 year old (House of Commons Library, 2015).

The housing trend illustrated by ASI exacerbates an already contracting population. The UK’s total fertility rate (TFR) has not met the replacement level since 1972. Sadly, as ASI notes, “by European standards, the UK’s TFR (1.82) is quite impressive.” The British birthrate exceeds that of Germany (1.5), Italy (1.35), or Spain (1.33). Slightly more fertile European nations still fall short of replacement levels; the closest is France at 1.96. These rates track rather closely with the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom and the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom map.

This is a salient fact: Market economies produce enough goods for young people who are so inclined to support more children. The world is incalculably richer for their fecundity. “Every human creature who is born on earth is the ‘sign’ par excellence of the Creator and Father who is in Heaven,” said Pope Benedict XVI in 2010.

Those economies that reject the market have the opposite effect. After Bolivarian populist socialism plunged Venezuela into the depths of recession, many of the nation’s women had themselves voluntarilysterilized.Similarly, a 2014 Princeton study found that 426,850 Americans will never be born because women chose not to have children after experiencing the Great Recession and thestatist policies that slowed the recovery. Finally, according to the Guttmacher Institute, nearly three-quarters of women who seek an abortion say they “can’t afford a baby right now.” Economic opportunity has profound human consequences.

“Our governments must learn to construct policies that do not accidentally have the side effect of making it harder to have children,” ASI states. Government limits on the design and height of plexes have capped the number of apartments available. Allowing development on 3.7 percent of London’s Green Belt would create a million new homes, ASI estimated in a previous study. Loosening other regulatory restrictions and reducing or abolishing taxes would also bring down housing costs. You can read ASI’s new report here. A previous summary of ASI’s housing policy proposals may be found here.

Any parent can attest that no amount of economic security will make someone feel adequately prepared to care for a child. And one ought not view human beings as economic goods; human dignity is parably higher than private budgetary issues.

However, history and human nature make clear to us that economic concerns will intrude upon even the most intimate questions of life and death. Therefore, those who affirm the intrinsic value of human life should be concerned to promote a market environment that provides hope, growth, and opportunity for all its citizens – and their posterity.

Williamson. This photo has been cropped. CC BY 2.0.)

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
Faith, Freedom, and ‘The Hunger Games’
In today’s Acton Commentary, “Secular Scapegoats and ‘The Hunger Games,'” I examine the themes of faith and freedom expressed in Suzanne Collins’ enormously popular trilogy. The film version of the first book hit the theaters this past weekend, and along with the release e a spate mentary critical of various aspects of Collins’ work. As for faith and freedom, it turns out there’s precious little of either in Panem. But that’s not necessarily such a bad thing, as I argue...
Cristiada: A Story of Heroic Martyrdom
A few days prior to Benedict’s XVI’s apostolic trip to Mexico and Cuba, producers of the epic film Cristiada (For Greater Glory in English) arranged a private screening in the Vatican City State. I was among the many avid defenders of religious liberty who scurried over to the Augustinianum venue next to St. Peter’s Square at last-minute notice. No doubt the film’s all-star Hollywood cast (Andy Garcia, Peter O’Toole, Eva Longoria and Eduardo Verastegui) was enough to draw us away...
John Locke and the Contraceptive Mandate
Michael Gerson on what the Obama administration’s view of religious liberty shares with John Locke: One tradition of religious liberty contends that freedom of conscience is protected and advanced by the autonomy of religious groups. In this view, government should honor an institutional pluralism — the ability of people to associate, live and act in accordance with their religious beliefs, limited only by the clear requirements of public order. So Roger Williams ed Catholics and Quakers to the Rhode Island...
The Social Muddle
Over on The American Spectator website, Acton research fellow Jonathan Witt explains that contrary to the misunderstanding of many on the political and religious left,business, justice, and the Gospel are already social: The adjective that economist Friedrich Hayek famously called a “weasel word” is alive and well in the feel-good phrasessocial business,social justiceandthe social gospel. In all three of these phrases, mon weasel word sucks some of the essential meaning out of what it modifies by implying that business, justice,...
HHS Mandate Fits Bigger Pattern
Both the original promise versions of the Obama administration’s health insurance mandate (the HHS mandate) coerce people into paying, either directly or indirectly, for other people’s contraception. The policy may have been pushed along by exigencies of Democratic Party constituency politics, but I suspect there’s also a worldview dimension to the mandate, one embodied in one of President Obama’s more controversial appointments—Science and Technology Policy Director John Holdren. Holdren, as far as I know, wasn’t involved in crafting President Obama’s...
Creativity is Calling
What do a painter, a cartoonist, a band member and an organizer have mon? The desire to be On Call in Culture in their sphere of art. Recently, Generous Mind had conversations with four artists and the resulting article and related blog posts from the artists themselves are featured this week on , the premier online destination to engage in the global dialogue about religion and spirituality and to explore and experience the world’s beliefs. We e you to explore...
Acton Lecture Series: Andrew Morriss on ‘The False Promise of Green Energy’
Andrew MorrissJoin us for the next Acton Lecture Series on Thursday, April 26, when Andrew Morriss, the D. Paul Jones, Jr. & Charlene Angelich Jones Chairholder of Law at the University of Alabama, will speak on “The False Promise of Green Energy.” Register online here. Here’s the lecture description: “Green energy advocates claim that transforming America to an economy based on wind, solar, and biofuels will produce jobs for Americans, benefits for the environment, and restore American industry. Prof. Andrew...
Counterpoint: The ‘Right to Water’ is not ‘Free Water for All’
“Does the Vatican think water should be ‘free’?” asked Kishore Jayabalan in his post examining the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace’s latest document on water. Although he is now the director of Istituto Acton, the Acton Institute’s Rome office, Jayabalan formerly worked for the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace as the lead policy analyst on sustainable development and arms control. In his post, Jayabalan referenced the analysis of George McGraw, the Executive Director of DigDeep Right to Water...
Does the Vatican think water should be ‘free’?
Not surprisingly, the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace (PCJP)’s latest document on water has garnered scant media attention. Why, after all, would journalists, already notorious for their professional Attention Deficit Disorder and dislike of abstract disputation, report on something named “Water: An Essential Element of Life,” especially when it is nothing more than an update of a document originally released in 2003, and then updated in 2006 and 2009, with the exact same titles? Back then, First Things editor-in-chief...
Can Fair Trade End Poverty?
Which does a better job helping the impoverished peoplearound the globe—free trade or fair trade? The American Enterprise Institute recently held a debate on that topic at John Brown Universityentitled “Free Trade vs. Fair Trade: What Helps the Poor?” Click here to watch the debate between scholars Claude Barfield, Paul Myers, and Victor Claar. In the debate Dr. Claar raises concerns about both the logic and economic reasoning underlying the fair trade movement. He also expands on that theme in...
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved