Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
The surprising, economic reason 157,000 British children were never born
The surprising, economic reason 157,000 British children were never born
Jan 11, 2026 11:16 AM

Students of the free market say that economics is merely human action. Economists also understand that policies have unintended consequences – such as reducing the number of children born in a nation. The Adam Smith Institute, based in London, has released a new report describing one such consequence due, in part, to central planning and overregulation.

The British housing crisis has inadvertently discouraged women from having 157,000 children, its report finds. Young couples in the UK increasingly struggle to afford a home of their own. The average price of a home in London has increased from £55,000 in 1986 to £492,000 today (approximately $71,800 to $642,250 U.S.). While that is due in part to urbanization, the ASI notes that some government policies artificially reduce the supply even as demand rises.

The new ASI study found that rising housing prices increased fertility for homeowners but decreased birthrates among those who rent. While the former is more confident in its economic future, the latter is struggling to save up for a home. Higher prices require higher deposits. In the meantime, the housing that couples can afford may not be large enough to modate all the children they wish to have.

ASI’s analysis found that “a 10% rise in house prices resulted in 4.9% decrease in births amongst renters and a 2.8% increase in births amongst home owners over the whole 18-year time period [1996 to 2014]. The net effect is a 1.3% decrease in births over the entire period, equating to approximately 157,000 missing children.”

Unfortunately, “in the ten years between 2004 and 2014 homeownership fell from 60% to 35% among 25-34 year olds – the key childbearing demographic,” the report, written by Andrew Sabisky, notes.

While careful to stipulate that child-bearing decisions are not exclusively, or even primarily, economic, they state that family size is driven in part by financial considerations. “When weighing the decision as to whether or not to have another [child], parents who simply cannot afford to do so will often not, no matter how much they might want another baby for other reasons.”

As newborns e more scarce, the average age creeps upward, and the number of Brits aged 85 and older will more than double in the next 18 years.

While a highly regulated-and-subsidized housing market discourages some Brits from having children, that population drop will further undermine the British economy. Any decrease in population levels exerts significant economic pressures on a nation with an old-age pension system like the UK (or the U.S.):

Lower mortality and fertility rates imply a rise in the dependency ratio (the ratio of non-workers to workers). The consequences for public finances are obvious. 55% of welfare spending currently goes to pensioners (as of 2014/15). In an ageing population this number is likely to rise even further. As of 2014 there were 3.2 working-age people for every pensioner; by 2037 this number is projected to fall to 2.7 (House of Commons Library, 2015). The rise in the numbers of very old people – as discussed above – presents an additional burden. The average 85 year old is estimated to cost the NHS three times as much as the average 65-74 year old (House of Commons Library, 2015).

The housing trend illustrated by ASI exacerbates an already contracting population. The UK’s total fertility rate (TFR) has not met the replacement level since 1972. Sadly, as ASI notes, “by European standards, the UK’s TFR (1.82) is quite impressive.” The British birthrate exceeds that of Germany (1.5), Italy (1.35), or Spain (1.33). Slightly more fertile European nations still fall short of replacement levels; the closest is France at 1.96. These rates track rather closely with the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom and the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom map.

This is a salient fact: Market economies produce enough goods for young people who are so inclined to support more children. The world is incalculably richer for their fecundity. “Every human creature who is born on earth is the ‘sign’ par excellence of the Creator and Father who is in Heaven,” said Pope Benedict XVI in 2010.

Those economies that reject the market have the opposite effect. After Bolivarian populist socialism plunged Venezuela into the depths of recession, many of the nation’s women had themselves voluntarilysterilized.Similarly, a 2014 Princeton study found that 426,850 Americans will never be born because women chose not to have children after experiencing the Great Recession and thestatist policies that slowed the recovery. Finally, according to the Guttmacher Institute, nearly three-quarters of women who seek an abortion say they “can’t afford a baby right now.” Economic opportunity has profound human consequences.

“Our governments must learn to construct policies that do not accidentally have the side effect of making it harder to have children,” ASI states. Government limits on the design and height of plexes have capped the number of apartments available. Allowing development on 3.7 percent of London’s Green Belt would create a million new homes, ASI estimated in a previous study. Loosening other regulatory restrictions and reducing or abolishing taxes would also bring down housing costs. You can read ASI’s new report here. A previous summary of ASI’s housing policy proposals may be found here.

Any parent can attest that no amount of economic security will make someone feel adequately prepared to care for a child. And one ought not view human beings as economic goods; human dignity is parably higher than private budgetary issues.

However, history and human nature make clear to us that economic concerns will intrude upon even the most intimate questions of life and death. Therefore, those who affirm the intrinsic value of human life should be concerned to promote a market environment that provides hope, growth, and opportunity for all its citizens – and their posterity.

Williamson. This photo has been cropped. CC BY 2.0.)

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
On Independence Day
It is no claim to Manifest Destiny, nor act of hyper-nationalism or xenophobic patriotism to say that America is the boldest, most liberal (in its original etymology), most successful and most prosperous experiment in human experience. To state thus is to state history. It behooves us, then, to recall Lord Acton’s axiom to the effect that “liberty is the delicate fruit of a mature civilization.” All who love freedom have their part to play in the cultivation of that fruit...
On the Relationship between Religion and Liberty
Earlier this year I was invited to participate in a seminar sponsored by the Institute for Humane Studies and Students for a Free Economy at Northwood University. In the course of the weekend I was able to establish that while I wasn’t the first theologian to present at an IHS event, I may well have been the first Protestant theologian. In a talk titled, “From Divine Right to Human Rights: The Foundations of Rights in the Modern World,” I attempted...
Coolidge and ‘the best ideas of democracy’
Coolidge If we are to maintain the great heritage which has been bequeathed to us, we must be like-minded as the fathers who created it. — Calvin Coolidge. The Wall Street Journal published today a timely, and much needed, reflection by Leon Kass on Calvin Coolidge’s address delivered at the 150th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence in 1926. Kass asks: What is the source of America’s founding ideas, and their bination” in the Declaration? Many have credited European thinkers,...
Acton University: A Student Perspective
This year’s Acton University was very successful, and we are still seeing its effects through blog posts, tweets, and Facebook messages. Some of our PowerBlog readers may be wondering what they missed out on, or would also like to think back a few weeks to their favorite Acton University moments. To listen to a favorite lecture, or to find out what was missed, remember that Acton University 2011 lectures can be purchased and downloaded for $1.99. Joe Gorra of the...
Rev. Sirico on Helping the Poor
Rev. Robert A. Sirico was recently a guest on The Matt Friedeman Show where he discussed the difference between charity and socialism. He talks about not only how we should give, but also how we can best help the poor. Socialism, according to Rev. Sirico, is the forced sharing of wealth and drains morality out of good actions. A discussion of the Acts of the Apostles also takes place in the following YouTube clip that contains a segment from the...
Religion & Liberty: An Interview with Wayne Grudem
Religion & Liberty’s spring issue featuring an interview with evangelical scholar Wayne Grudem is now available online. Grudem’s new book is Politics According to the Bible (Zondervan 2010). It’s a great reference and I have already made use of it for a mentaries and PowerBlog posts here at Acton. “I am arguing in the book that it is a spiritually good thing and it is pleasing to God when Christians can influence government for good,” Grudem declared in the interview....
Pope Addresses Rising Food Prices
Last week, Pope Benedict XVI addressed the annual conference of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, and expressed particular concern over rising food prices and the instability of the global food market. In his 2009 encyclical Caritas in Veritate, the pope issued this challenge: “The problem of food insecurity needs to be addressed within a long-term perspective, eliminating the structural causes that give rise to it and promoting the agricultural development of poorer countries.” Acton’s Director of Research Samuel Gregg...
Christian Hipsters and Economics
Anarchist punks are out and the socially-aware hipsters are in (even though they don’t want to say they’re “in”). A little over a decade ago, the hipster scene made its eback since the 1940s. Though e in all shapes and sizes, many contemporary hipsters can be found riding their fixed-gear bikes to the farmers’ market or at a bar in skinny jeans drinking Pabst Blue Ribbon. An interesting sub-category has emerged: Christian hipsters. According to Brett McCracken in an article...
Cosmos as Society in the Work of Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew
In the current issue of the Journal of Markets & Morality (14.1), Brian K. Strow and Claudia W. Strow challenge the economic impact of our definition of society in their article, “Social Choice: The Neighborhood Effect.” It occurred to me that Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew implicitly challenges our definition of society on a different, though similar, level than Strow and Strow. Strow and Strow analyze the changing results of economic utility functions based upon one’s definition of human society. In his...
Defending Free Markets and Private Property
Earlier this week on the Acton Institute Facebook page, Rev. Sirico’s archived article “What is Capitalism?” was posted and sparked a lively discussion between two people (click here to see our Facebook page and the discussion). This blog post is to serve as my response. Your idea munionism, at least from what I understand from ments, bears some resemblances munism which has the end goal of society or munity possessing property mon. This, however, doesn’t preserve human dignity properly; nor...
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved