Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
The new political divide pits conservatives against liberals and populists
The new political divide pits conservatives against liberals and populists
Jan 1, 2025 1:20 PM

The election of 2016 highlighted how politically divided we are as a nation. But the dividing line may not be where we had assumed.

For the past few decades the electorate has been viewed as divided almost equally between social and economic conservatives and social and economic liberals. But a recent study of voting patterns in the 2016 election reveals the old left-right divide is fractured and voters are clustered into four main groups.

The first group prised of Liberals, who are liberal on both economic and identity issues. At 44.6 percent, prise the largest voting demographic.

The second group is made up of Populists, people who are liberal on economic issues and conservative on identity issues. They are 28.9 percent of the population.

The third group is Conservatives, those who are conservative on both economic and identity issues. They are not only much smaller than the Liberals but even smaller than the Populists, making up only 22.7 percent of voters.

Finally, there are the Libertarians, who are conservative on economic issues and liberal on identity issues. prise a mere 3.8 percent of voters.

This scatterplot below shows how these groups aligned in the 2016 electorate.

Not surprisingly, Clinton voters are consistently liberal on both economic and identity issues. But notice that Trump voters are less conservative on identity issues than Clinton voters are liberal. And while Trump voters are clustered around the center-right on economic issues, few are strongly conservative on economics—and many are economically liberal.

Clinton won the majority of Liberals, while Trump won almost all of the Conservatives. But Trump also won 6.3 percent of the Liberal vote and gained the edge in winning over the Populists. Trump beat Clinton by about a 3-to-1 margin among the populists. Clinton won only 5.7 percent of the Populist vote, barely beating out the 4.3 percent of populists who supported third party candidates.

(Libertarians split almost equally between Clinton, Trump, and third party candidates like Johnson, proving that Liberaltarians do exist.)

So how did Trump win? As the report notes, largely by winning over the Populists—liberal on economic issues, conservative on identity issues—who had previously voted for Obama (about 8 percent of Populists had voted for Obama in 2012) or who had supported neither Obama nor Romney in 2012.

He also resonated with those who supported economically liberal positions—which now is the majority of the Republican party. If we look at primary voters, we find that Republicans—even Ted Cruz voters—were to the left of Clinton voters on attitudes about foreign trade. Trump voters were also to the left of every candidate but Kasich on economic inequality.

What does this portend for the GOP? As the report notes,

Republicans are about equally divided between economically liberal populists and more free-market-oriented conservatives. Republican primaries revealed a Kasich faction that is consistently more moderate across issues, a Trump faction that is more liberal on economic issues but more conservative on identity issues, and a Cruz faction that is more free market on economic issues and particularly conservative on moral issues.

[…]

Since Republicans have picked up more economically liberal voters (and may continue to do so since there are still some populists who vote for Democrats), it may be harder for Republicans to continue to push a traditional conservative free-market agenda.

As these results show, free market advocates pletely e in the Democratic Party and increasingly ing a minority within the GOP. If we don’t find a way to shift the tide soon we advocates of economic freedom may find ourselves caught between Populist and Liberals as they fight about what sort of socialism we’ll be forced to accept.

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
Verse of the Day
  Commentary on Todays Verse   Commentary on Psalm 90:12-17   Read Psalm 90:12-17   Those who would learn true wisdom, must pray for Divine instruction, must beg to be taught by the Holy Spirit and for comfort and joy in the returns of God#39s favour. They pray for the mercy of God, for they pretend not to plead any merit of their own....
Verse of the Day
  Hebrews 11:6 In-Context   4 By faith Abel brought God a better offering than Cain did. By faith he was commended as righteous, when God spoke well of his offerings. And by faith Abel still speaks, even though he is dead.   5 By faith Enoch was taken from this life, so that he did not experience death: He could not be...
Verse of the Day
  1 John 4:20 In-Context   18 There is no fear in love. But perfect love drives out fear, because fear has to do with punishment. The one who fears is not made perfect in love.   19 We love because he first loved us.   20 Whoever claims to love God yet hates a brother or sister is a liar. For whoever does...
Verse of the Day
  1 Corinthians 3:18-20 In-Context   16 Don't you know that you yourselves are God's temple and that God's Spirit dwells in your midst?   17 If anyone destroys God's temple, God will destroy that person; for God's temple is sacred, and you together are that temple.   18 Do not deceive yourselves. If any of you think you are wise by the standards...
Verse of the Day
  Commentary on Todays Verse   Commentary on Proverbs 22:4   Read Proverbs 22:4   Where the fear of God is, there will be humility. And much is to be enjoyed by it spiritual riches, and eternal life at last.   Proverbs 22:4 In-Context   2 Rich and poor have this in common: The Lord is the Maker of them all.   3 The prudent see danger...
Verse of the Day
  Commentary on Todays Verse   Commentary on Proverbs 15:4   Read Proverbs 15:4   A good tongue is healing to wounded consciences, by comforting them to sin-sick souls, by convincing them and it reconciles parties at variance.   Proverbs 15:4 In-Context   2 The tongue of the wise adorns knowledge, but the mouth of the fool gushes folly.   3 The eyes of the Lord are...
Verse of the Day
  Isaiah 61:7 In-Context   5 Strangers will shepherd your flocks foreigners will work your fields and vineyards.   6 And you will be called priests of the Lord, you will be named ministers of our God. You will feed on the wealth of nations, and in their riches you will boast.   7 Instead of your shame you will receive a double portion,...
Verse of the Day
  Commentary on Todays Verse   Complete Concise   Chapter Contents   Exhortations to obedience and faith. 1-6 To piety, and to improve afflictions. 7-12 To gain wisdom. 13-20 Guidance of Wisdom. 21-26 The wicked and the upright. 27-35   Commentary on Proverbs 3:1-6   Read Proverbs 3:1-6   In the way of believing obedience to God#39s commandments health and peace may commonly be enjoyed and though...
Verse of the Day
  Galatians 2:20 In-Context   18 If I rebuild what I destroyed, then I really would be a lawbreaker.   19 For through the law I died to the law so that I might live for God.   20 I have been crucified with Christ and I no longer live, but Christ lives in me. The life I now live in the body, I...
Verse of the Day
  Commentary on Todays Verse   Commentary on Psalm 37:1-6   Read Psalm 37:1-6   When we look abroad we see the world full of evil-doers, that flourish and live in ease. So it was seen of old, therefore let us not marvel at the matter. We are tempted to fret at this, to think them the only happy people, and so we are...
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved