Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
Providence, presidents, and the fundamental fallacy of pop economics
Providence, presidents, and the fundamental fallacy of pop economics
Nov 9, 2025 4:31 PM

When running for president, candidates often makes outlandish promises about how we’ll benefit once they have power.

For instance, vice-presidential candidate John Edwards said in 2004 that, “when John Kerry is president people like [quadriplegic actor] Christopher Reeve will get up out of that wheelchair and walk again.” And in 2008, then-candidate Barak Obama said we’ll look back on his winning the Democratic nomination as the moment “when the rise of the oceans began to slow and the planet began to heal.”

The most absurd claims, though, are often about matters of economics. A prime example—and one of the silliest ever—was made the day after Christmas when president-elect Donald Trump tweeted, “The world was gloomy before I won – there was no hope. Now the market is up nearly 10% and Christmas spending is over a trillion dollars!”

Only someone with an ego the size of Trump could truly believe he was having such a massive positive effect on the economy even before he took office. And only someone with Trump’s profound ignorance of economics could believe he possessed such abilities. Unfortunately, such illogical thinking is not unusual. Noah Smith calls this idea that the President of the United States controls economic es the “Fundamental Fallacy of Pop Economics.”

“The Fundamental Fallacy is in operation every time you hear a phrase like “the Bush boom” or ‘the Obama recovery,’” says Smith. “It’s in effect every time someone asks ‘how many jobs Obama has created’. It’s present every time you see charts of economic activity divided up by presidential administration.”

Smith provides three broad reasons why this type of thinking is fallacious. But what is harder to explain is why we fall for such nonsense in the first place. What leads us to put our faith in the idea that the president can control the economy?

For the most part, the fallacy can be attributed to simple (and simplistic) partisanship. As Smith notes, a lot of this type of thinking is “instinctive and tribal – it’s ‘Republican President = good economy’.” But I think more broadly, the issue is theological. We want to believe some human is in control of the economy because we seek a substitute for God.

No one thinks the president, whether Obama or Trump is an actual deity. Yet there are some supporters of every president who seem to credit American presidents with god-like powers of control. The reason, I suspect, is that we’re extremely fortable with God’s actual providential engagement in the economy. (The idea that there is such providential engagement strikes many people as unimaginable, which leads them to look for a human to mand.)

Finding providential action in economic affairs is not difficult if we only open our eyes. Take, for example, a large but often overlooked area of the economy—the price system. Economist Alex Tabarrok says, “If it had been invented, the price system would be one of the most amazing creations of the human mind.” The price system is indeed an amazing creation—but a creation of the divine mind. It’s one of God’s means of coordinating human activity for the purposes of human flourishing.

Humans may set individual prices but it was God who designed the price system as a means of coordinating human activity for the purposes of human flourishing. As with most good gifts given by God to humans, we are able to corrupt it and use it in ways that harm our neighbors. Yet for the most part, the price system is an ingenious method munication that has been used to improve the human condition.

What is awe-inspiring about this system is that no human is in control of the price system. No president (even Richard Nixon, who tried) has the power to control prices. For some of us, this forting. For others, it’s anxiety producing. Those who reject the idea that human (economic) behavior is guided (at least in part) by providence are terrified by the thought that no one is in control. pensate, some adopt made-up economic “laws” (as in Marxism) and provide a reified abstract substitute (e.g., History) to replace the providential function of God.

But others, including some Christians, have a simpler, and even more naïve belief. They believe that if a Great Man (or Great Woman) is simply authorized to take action, they will be able by sheer force of will and political policy do things like “create jobs” or “grow the economy.”

We laugh at primitives who worship man-made gods of wood and stone (Deuteronomy 4:28) and think such carvings can control phenomena such as the weather. Yet we moderns impute god-like abilities to men of flesh and blood and think they can truly control even plex phenomenon like the American economy. If we would only give the issue the most perfunctory consideration we would see why the idea that Barak Obama could bring “hope and change” to our economic lives or that Donald Trump will “make America (economically) great again” is embarrassing superstitious nonsense.

This is not to say, of course, that presidents do not have an influence or impact on economic es. They certainly do—and unless such intervention is used to reverse previous policies, the effect is almost always detrimental. Trump, for instance, has repeatedly promised to limit trade and impose protectionist restrictions—actions that will harm economic growth and the well-being of the average American citizen. Trump is delusional in thinking, as many others do, that by his mere wishing a policy would be effective he can make it so.

Such wishful thinking is ancient and hard to e. A few thousand years ago the psalmist said, “Do not put your trust in princes, in human beings, who cannot save” (Psalm 146:3). We still haven’t learned that lesson; perhaps we never will. But it would be a major step forward if we would merely recognize this fundamental fallacy of pop economics and admit that no matter how much we wish it were so, princes nor presidents cannot save our economy.

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
Acton Lecture Series: Rise of Religious Left
A large crowd packed into St. Cecilia Music Center in Grand Rapids yesterday to hear Rev. Robert A. Sirico’s presentation on “The Rise and Eventual Downfall of the Religious Left.” This is a political movement, he said, that “exalts social transformation over personal charity, and social activism above the need for evangelization of the human soul.” (He also took time to critique the Religious Right.) An audio recording of Rev. Sirico’s Acton Lecture Series presentation is available on the Acton...
Homeschooling under fire in California
In this week’s mentary, Chris Banescu looks at a ruling by the Second District Court of Appeals for the state of California which declared that “parents do not have a constitutional right to home school their children.” The ruling effectively bans families from homeschooling their children and threatens parents with criminal penalties for daring to do so. Chris Banescu was reminded of another sort of government control: The totalitarian impulses of the court were further evidenced by the arguments it...
‘Hot air gods’
The title of Curtis White’s provocative but flawed essay in Harpers… As an intro to his primary topic (politics), White has some provocative things to say about the contemporary (American) understanding of our “beliefs”… The most bewildering and yet revealing gesture of a truly fundamental American theology takes place when an individual stands forth and proclaims, “This is my belief”. Making such a simple and familiar statement implies at least three important things. First, it implies that I have a...
Bashing globalization in the name of European ‘values’
Hostility towards globalization is not the exclusive territory of the left in Italy. Giulio Tremonti, a former minister of the economy in Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right government, has written a book called Fear and Hope (La Paura e la Speranza), largely arguing against free trade and the opening of international markets. Tremonti blames the recent rise in the prices of consumer goods on globalization and says that this is only the beginning. The global financial crisis, environmental destruction, and geopolitical tensions...
An open letter to Southern Baptists
Dr. Frank S. Page President, Southern Baptist Convention and Mr. Richard Land SBC Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission and Pastor Jonathan Merritt Cross Pointe Church Brothers in Christ: As a member in good standing of the Southern Baptist Church and a Christian who has through much prayer and Bible e to acknowledge God’s desire that the church take seriously her role in stewardship of creation, I have been closely following the release of A Southern Baptist Declaration on the Environment...
‘What the Democrats can learn from a dead libertarian lawyer’
The subtitle of Damon Root’s article in Reason— food for thought for Dems (and GOP’ers) and a history lesson on an important but obscure figure, Moorfield Storey… With Republicans apparently uninterested in pleasing the libertarian segments of their coalition, some liberals and libertarians—Daily Kos blogger Markos Moulitsas, former Democratic National Committee press secretary Terry Michael, and Reason contributor Matt Welch among them—have suggested an alternative: the libertarian Democrat, the sort of liberal who favors both free speech and free trade,...
The ABCs on AIDS in Africa
Edward C. Green and Allison Herling Ruark of the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies cut through the nonsense and offer clear thinking on AIDS in Africa. Their article in the April issue of First Things more specifically criticizes a recent report on faith-based organizations and AIDS emerging from the Berkley Center at Georgetown University. Green and Ruark take pains to be respectful and deferential toward the Georgetown researchers, even where the egregious errors of the latter might have...
John Hancock embodied freedom and generosity
Forever known for his signature, the American Founding Father John Hancock (1737-93) was also staunch opponent of unnecessary or excessive taxation. “They have no right [The Crown] to put their hands in my pocket,” Hancock said. He strongly believed even after the American Revolution, that Congress, like Parliament, could use taxes as a form of tyranny. As Governor of Massachusetts, Hancock sided with the people over and against over zealous tax appropriators and collectors. Hancock argued farmers and tradesmen would...
Can any good come from a recession?
Following its new-found interest in sound economics, the Vatican’s newspaper, L’Osservatore Romano, has turned its attention to what now seems to be a global downturn. The usual European trope is that the current troubles are the result of American overspending, overconsumption and unsustainable debt burdens, so it is very surprising to see a contrarian view in Sunday’s paper entitled “The Morality of the Recession.” Italian banker Ettore Gotti Tedeschi evaluates the credit crunch affecting the U.S. economy and the Federal...
Democracy as a means to (hopefully) godly ends
Robert George in the November 2007 issue of Touchstone on democracy, Catholic social teaching, and the confusion of means and ends… Catholicism…preaches democratic ideals and promotes democratic institutions in the political sphere…. This teaching is put forth not as a mere prudential matter…but as a matter of justice in the dealings of human beings with one another. At is core is the idea that of all systems of political governance, democracy ports with the foundational anthropological and moral truth that...
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved