Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
FAQ: The U.S.-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement
FAQ: The U.S.-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement
Dec 23, 2025 5:26 PM

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He signed “Phase One” of a two-part trade agreement between the United States and China. Here are the facts you need to know.

What does the new trade deal mean for both countries?

The agreement cools, or at least pauses, the 18-month-long trade war between the two nations. The world’s two largest mit to opening their markets: The U.S. reduces tariffs, while China agrees to purchase a specific amount of goods and services, specified by sector, and to reform its encroachment of intellectual property. The text of the agreement, which was kept secret until the signing, is available online and is described by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office in a series of fact sheets.

What does China promise in “Phase One”?

China promises to purchase an additional $200 billion of certain goods and services over and above the $186 billion it spent in 2017 (before the trade war ratcheted up), to crack down on intellectual property theft, and to remove certain structural barriers to U.S. products.

China vows to spend an additional $32 billion over 2017 levels on U.S. agriculture, $52.4 billion on energy, and $37.9 billion on U.S. services like IP and tourism. If China fulfills the agreement, Chinese authorities will spend an additional $77.7 billion in 2020, raising the amount of U.S. exports bound for China to $263 billion, and $123 billion in 2021, when U.S. exports will hit $309 billion. “Either amount would mark a record-breaking acceleration for U.S. exports to China,” reported CNBC.

A 24-page annex in the agreement specifies which goods and services that China may purchase within each sector ply with the agreement. For instance, China agrees to purchase an additional $32 billion in agricultural goods, including: oilseeds, meat, cereals, cotton, and seafood. The agreement further breaks down the goods that fall into each of these categories in seven pages of trade text.

Most significantly, the agreement spells out rules about how China will counter intellectual property theft and technology transfer. China agrees to draw up plans to stop IP theft, including ending the forced disclosure of proprietary information during government investigations and shifting the burden of proof in IP theft cases to the defendant. These measures begin to address the concerns that lay at the heart of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR)Section 301 Report. The rules and procedures in “Phase One” go beyond those specified by the World Trade Organization and could assist in gauging pliance.

Aside from these provisions, the agreement eliminates structural barriers to trade by removing, for instance, Chinese objections to genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in the agricultural portion of the agreement, and by eradicating equity caps on U.S. insurance firms and financial managers. “Phase One” also requires China pensate panies “for unreasonable delays that occur in granting the patent or during pharmaceutical product marketing approvals.”

Liu hinted that Beijing may exceed these targets during his speech at the signing ceremony. “China will open itself even wider,” he said. But skepticism is not unwarranted. China regularly reneges on trade (and other international) agreements and, while “the enforcement element of the deal looks rather robust,” it is “not airtight,” said Matthew P. Goodman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

What did the United States promise in the “Phase One” agreement?

The U.S. halves its tariffs on $120 billion worth of Chinese imports, from 15 percent to 7.5 percent. However, a 25 percent punitive tariff remains on an additional $250 billion of Chinese goods. And tariffs can be hiked in the event of future disagreements. Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics said high tariffs are “the new normal.’’ Deborah Elms, executive director at consultancy Asian Trade Centre, agreed that “we’re stuck with tariffs for a very long time.” Another analyst – Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Advisory Group – used a more colorful turn-of-phrase: “These tariffs have now e a roach motel,” he said.

Has the U.S. taken additional steps to cool the trade war with China?

Although it is not part of the agreement, the United States dropped charges that China is manipulating its currency earlier in the week. President Trump decided not to impose tariffs on an additional $160 billion of Chinese exports last December.

Is this a free trade agreement?

No, “Phase One” does not represent free trade. It directs China to purchase a specific amount of goods or services and provides for both nations to open their markets from the present stand-off. “The U.S.-China phase-one deal is essentially a trade truce, with large state-directed purchases attached,” said economist Mary Lovely of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Although the agreement attempts to shift China’s political economy to a more market-based one, free from government intervention, there is nothing market-based about these government-directed purchases,” said James Jay Carafano of the Heritage Foundation. Others view the deal more positively, as the president wringing concessions out of China’s notoriously closed markets and nibbling away at its mercantilist double standards. “Trade is always good news,” said U.S. Senator Ben Sasse, R-NE. Trump ally Steve Bannon said the president “broke the Chinese Communist Party.” But ultimately, “People should understand this is a political deal, not an economic deal,” said AEI analyst Derek Scissors.

What does “Phase One” not cover?

The agreement does not deal with China’s deep subsidies for domestic industries, something left to the next agreement.

How have global markets responded to “Phase One”?

Investors have responded to the “Phase One” agreement with tremendous relief, fueling a spike in global stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average cracked a record, reaching 29,000 for the first time ever on Wednesday. European stocks surged to a record high on Thursday, as the Stoxx Europe 600 closed at 420.52. Oil futures also rose on the news of the agreement’s mandatory energy purchases.

What will the initial U.S.-China agreement mean to both economies in the long term?

Economists, as always, are split. Lawrence Kudlow, the director of President Trump’s National Economic Council, forecasts that the agreement will“help grow oureconomy faster.We reckon in 2020 and 2021, atleast a half a point of additionalGDP, which will probablytranslate into anothermillion jobs.” On the other hand, some believe the lingering tariffs and the potential for additional trade disputes could render the gains moot. “The modest scale of the rollback of existing tariffs means that the deal will provide little, if any, boost to U.S. GDP growth in 2020,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Is there potential for the trade war with China to heat up again?

Yes, President Trump has said the terms of the agreement are “fully enforceable,” meaning that tariffs could rise if he believes China is failing to live up to its side of the agreement. The U.S. is still directing taxpayer funds to fight Chinese domination of sensitive industries. Congressional plans to steer $1.25 billion to U.S. panies developing alternatives to Huawei suggest tensions are far from over. And significant sources of conflict remain unaddressed by the deal.

How does the agreement impact global free trade?

As “Phase One” moved closer to the signing stage, President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on European industries – in order to force the EU to lower barriers against U.S. goods. The move indicates that Donald Trump fights the trade war one front at a time.

When will “Phase Two” of the trade agreement between the U.S. and China pleted?

Kudlow said negotiators would get to work immediately on the next part of the agreement. However, most experts believe there will be a lull in the talks, and that there is no likelihood pleting the next round of negotiations during President Trump’s first term in office.

Craighead / White House. Public domain.)

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
How real GDP per capita measures standard of living
Note: This is post #72 in a weekly video series on basic economics. If money can’t buy happiness, why do we measure standard of living in economic terms, specifically GDP per capita? A primary reason is that increases in real GDP per capita also correlate to improvements in those things money can’t buy, such as health and happiness. In this video by Marginal Revolution University,Alex Tabarrok explains why it’s a helpful measure—and where it falls short. (If you find the...
The new middle: BMW joins the apprenticeship renaissance
I recently highlighted the rise of hands-on vocational training in educational institutions across the State of Colorado, wondering whether such developments might signal the beginning of anapprenticeship renaissance in the United States. Indeed, many panies and industries are taking a similar approach, experimenting with a range of models for cultivating human capital in the modern age. In South Carolina, for example, BMW is now expanding its apprenticeship program at one of its largest manufacturing plants. BMW currently trains about 35...
Mao’s ‘rational faith’: How communist China sought to replace God
In light of Greg Forster’s Acton lecture on Whittaker Chambers, the famous Soviet spy who later converted to Christianity, I recently noted Chambers’ routine reminders munism is not, fundamentally, about a certain menu of economic theories or political tactics. “[Communism] is not just the writings of Marx and Lenin, dialectical materialism, the Politburo, the labor theory of value, the theory of the general strike, the Red Army, the secret police, labor camps, underground conspiracy, the dictatorship of the proletariat, the...
The bishop, Balaam, and communism
‘Weltchronik. Böhmen’ by Rudolf von Ems Public Domain Lester DeKoster begins his book Communism and Christian Faith, now out in a new edition from Christian’s Library Press, with a quote from Bishop Joseph Butler’s sermon ‘Upon the Character of Balaam’: “Things and actions are what they are, and their consequences will be what they will be: why then should we seek to be deceived?” At first it seems transparently simple, obvious really, but in our day-to-day lives it is as...
5 Facts for World Water Day
Today is the 25th annual observance of World Water Day, a global initiative to focus attention on the importance of freshwater. Here are five facts you should know about safe and accessible water: 1. According to the United States Geological Survey Water Science School, almost two-thirds (71 percent) of the Earth’s surface is covered in water, though only 3.5 percent is freshwater. Out of the supply of freshwater: 68.7 percent is contained in ice caps, glaciers, and permanent snow; 30.1...
Why do Russian oligarchs hide their money in London?
Former Russian intelligence agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia are clinging to life after being attacked with nerve gas in Salisbury. British Prime Minister Theresa May and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson plan to target the finances of Russian oligarchs in retaliation. Russian elites have spirited their cash to the UK via a dizzying array of British banks, businesses, and luxury properties: British banks reportedly processed $738 million in funds from an elaborate Russian money-laundering scheme known as “The Laundromat”;Transparency...
West silent as genocide lurks in Syria
“This month marks the seventh anniversary of the start of the Syrian Civil War,” notes Trey Dimsdale in this week’s Acton Commentary. “Syria was, albeit governed by dictator Bashar al-Assad, a stable nation but today it is in ruins, with so many fault lines and battlefields that it is nearly impossible to sort out the contending interests inside the nation. The ripples of the conflict have reached every continent.” The war has given rise to the Islamic State, has triggered...
What you need to know: Today’s new Brexit transition agreement
On Monday afternoon, David Davis of the UK and Michel Barnier of the EU revealed that their governments had agreed on the shape of their relationship during the first two years after Brexit. Here’s what it will look like: A 21-month transition period: The UK will officially leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. Monday’s announcement adds a 21-month transition period, which will end on December 31, 2020. During this phase, the UK will enjoy all “thebenefits, the advantages...
Samuel Gregg: Why America needs a patriotic case for free trade
“While the economic arguments for free trade pelling, the political rationale requires a long-overdue overhaul,” says Samuel Gregg, Acton’s research director. Writing at Public Discourse, Gregg argues that America needs a patriotic case for free trade: So how does free trade bolster America’s standing in the world? Here are three particular benefits that free traders might consider emphasizing. First, free trade helps make America a more economically flexible and disciplined country. Openness to petition prevents, for example, American businesses from...
Radio Free Acton: Tech & Work: The effect of technology on farming; Upstream on ‘The Rending and the Nest’
On this episode of Radio Free Acton, Dan Churchwell, associate director of program outreach at Acton, speaks with Kevin Scott, a farmer from Valley Springs, SD, on sustainable farming and growing technology as well as the dramatic changes in agriculture that have taken place due to new technologies. Then, on the Upstream segment, Bruce Edward Walker talks with author Kaethe Schwehn on her new dystopian novel“The Rending and the Nest.” Check out these additional resources on this week’s podcast topics:...
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved