Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
FAQ: The U.S.-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement
FAQ: The U.S.-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement
Mar 11, 2026 6:56 AM

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He signed “Phase One” of a two-part trade agreement between the United States and China. Here are the facts you need to know.

What does the new trade deal mean for both countries?

The agreement cools, or at least pauses, the 18-month-long trade war between the two nations. The world’s two largest mit to opening their markets: The U.S. reduces tariffs, while China agrees to purchase a specific amount of goods and services, specified by sector, and to reform its encroachment of intellectual property. The text of the agreement, which was kept secret until the signing, is available online and is described by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office in a series of fact sheets.

What does China promise in “Phase One”?

China promises to purchase an additional $200 billion of certain goods and services over and above the $186 billion it spent in 2017 (before the trade war ratcheted up), to crack down on intellectual property theft, and to remove certain structural barriers to U.S. products.

China vows to spend an additional $32 billion over 2017 levels on U.S. agriculture, $52.4 billion on energy, and $37.9 billion on U.S. services like IP and tourism. If China fulfills the agreement, Chinese authorities will spend an additional $77.7 billion in 2020, raising the amount of U.S. exports bound for China to $263 billion, and $123 billion in 2021, when U.S. exports will hit $309 billion. “Either amount would mark a record-breaking acceleration for U.S. exports to China,” reported CNBC.

A 24-page annex in the agreement specifies which goods and services that China may purchase within each sector ply with the agreement. For instance, China agrees to purchase an additional $32 billion in agricultural goods, including: oilseeds, meat, cereals, cotton, and seafood. The agreement further breaks down the goods that fall into each of these categories in seven pages of trade text.

Most significantly, the agreement spells out rules about how China will counter intellectual property theft and technology transfer. China agrees to draw up plans to stop IP theft, including ending the forced disclosure of proprietary information during government investigations and shifting the burden of proof in IP theft cases to the defendant. These measures begin to address the concerns that lay at the heart of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR)Section 301 Report. The rules and procedures in “Phase One” go beyond those specified by the World Trade Organization and could assist in gauging pliance.

Aside from these provisions, the agreement eliminates structural barriers to trade by removing, for instance, Chinese objections to genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in the agricultural portion of the agreement, and by eradicating equity caps on U.S. insurance firms and financial managers. “Phase One” also requires China pensate panies “for unreasonable delays that occur in granting the patent or during pharmaceutical product marketing approvals.”

Liu hinted that Beijing may exceed these targets during his speech at the signing ceremony. “China will open itself even wider,” he said. But skepticism is not unwarranted. China regularly reneges on trade (and other international) agreements and, while “the enforcement element of the deal looks rather robust,” it is “not airtight,” said Matthew P. Goodman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

What did the United States promise in the “Phase One” agreement?

The U.S. halves its tariffs on $120 billion worth of Chinese imports, from 15 percent to 7.5 percent. However, a 25 percent punitive tariff remains on an additional $250 billion of Chinese goods. And tariffs can be hiked in the event of future disagreements. Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics said high tariffs are “the new normal.’’ Deborah Elms, executive director at consultancy Asian Trade Centre, agreed that “we’re stuck with tariffs for a very long time.” Another analyst – Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Advisory Group – used a more colorful turn-of-phrase: “These tariffs have now e a roach motel,” he said.

Has the U.S. taken additional steps to cool the trade war with China?

Although it is not part of the agreement, the United States dropped charges that China is manipulating its currency earlier in the week. President Trump decided not to impose tariffs on an additional $160 billion of Chinese exports last December.

Is this a free trade agreement?

No, “Phase One” does not represent free trade. It directs China to purchase a specific amount of goods or services and provides for both nations to open their markets from the present stand-off. “The U.S.-China phase-one deal is essentially a trade truce, with large state-directed purchases attached,” said economist Mary Lovely of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Although the agreement attempts to shift China’s political economy to a more market-based one, free from government intervention, there is nothing market-based about these government-directed purchases,” said James Jay Carafano of the Heritage Foundation. Others view the deal more positively, as the president wringing concessions out of China’s notoriously closed markets and nibbling away at its mercantilist double standards. “Trade is always good news,” said U.S. Senator Ben Sasse, R-NE. Trump ally Steve Bannon said the president “broke the Chinese Communist Party.” But ultimately, “People should understand this is a political deal, not an economic deal,” said AEI analyst Derek Scissors.

What does “Phase One” not cover?

The agreement does not deal with China’s deep subsidies for domestic industries, something left to the next agreement.

How have global markets responded to “Phase One”?

Investors have responded to the “Phase One” agreement with tremendous relief, fueling a spike in global stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average cracked a record, reaching 29,000 for the first time ever on Wednesday. European stocks surged to a record high on Thursday, as the Stoxx Europe 600 closed at 420.52. Oil futures also rose on the news of the agreement’s mandatory energy purchases.

What will the initial U.S.-China agreement mean to both economies in the long term?

Economists, as always, are split. Lawrence Kudlow, the director of President Trump’s National Economic Council, forecasts that the agreement will“help grow oureconomy faster.We reckon in 2020 and 2021, atleast a half a point of additionalGDP, which will probablytranslate into anothermillion jobs.” On the other hand, some believe the lingering tariffs and the potential for additional trade disputes could render the gains moot. “The modest scale of the rollback of existing tariffs means that the deal will provide little, if any, boost to U.S. GDP growth in 2020,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Is there potential for the trade war with China to heat up again?

Yes, President Trump has said the terms of the agreement are “fully enforceable,” meaning that tariffs could rise if he believes China is failing to live up to its side of the agreement. The U.S. is still directing taxpayer funds to fight Chinese domination of sensitive industries. Congressional plans to steer $1.25 billion to U.S. panies developing alternatives to Huawei suggest tensions are far from over. And significant sources of conflict remain unaddressed by the deal.

How does the agreement impact global free trade?

As “Phase One” moved closer to the signing stage, President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on European industries – in order to force the EU to lower barriers against U.S. goods. The move indicates that Donald Trump fights the trade war one front at a time.

When will “Phase Two” of the trade agreement between the U.S. and China pleted?

Kudlow said negotiators would get to work immediately on the next part of the agreement. However, most experts believe there will be a lull in the talks, and that there is no likelihood pleting the next round of negotiations during President Trump’s first term in office.

Craighead / White House. Public domain.)

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
Work as a religion: The problem with ‘workism’ and its critics
If you’re a young person in America, you’ve undoubtedly been bombarded by calls to“follow your passion,” “pursue your dreams,” or “do what you love and love what you do.” Such slogans have led many toward a renewed appreciation of the meaning that can be found in mundane economic activity—and in many ways, rightly so. But in and by themselves, do these sugary mantras truly represent the path to vocational clarity, economic abundance, personal fulfillment, and human flourishing? In an increasingly...
Google and surveillance capitalism
Business Insider reported last week that Google failed to disclose the existence of a microphone in their home security system, NestSecure. This came as a surprise to many Nest customers plained that they were not informed that the security system even had a microphone. Google apologized, saying it was an error. A Google spokesman told Business Insider: “The on-device microphone was never intended to be a secret and should have been listed in the tech specs. That was an error...
Warren’s child care plan needs competition
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) unveiled a plan last week for universal child care. Despite her good intentions, her plan would petition, raise prices, and reduce options for parents in need. Warren begins by sharing her own experience as a working mother unable to find child care. Exasperated, she called her “Aunt Bee” and “between tears” told her, “I couldn’t make it work and had to quit my job.” Fortunately for Warren, her aunt came to the rescue...
The male-only military draft may be unconstitutional, but conscription itself is immoral
In 1981 the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that women could be exempt from the military draft since they were excluded bat duty. But in 2015 Defense Secretary Ash Carter announced he would lift the military’s ban on women serving bat, a move that allowed hundreds of thousands of women to serve in front-line positions during wartime. The next year the top officers in the Army and Marine Corps followed that policy to its logical conclusion and told Congress that it...
Understanding the Great Depression
Note: This is post #112 in a weekly video series on basic economics. During the “Roaring Twenties” the economy was booming—growing at nearly three percent per year—while inflation stayed near zero percent. But in 1929 the stock market crashed ushered in the Great Depression. What happened to cause the rapid change? In this video by Marginal Revolution University, economist Alex Tabarrok examine the causes behind the Great Depression with the help of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply model. By the end...
Alejandro Chafuen in Forbes: Justice after liberation in Venezuela
This past weekend in Forbes, Alejandro Chafuen, Acton’s Managing Director, International, offered some perspectives on the current situation in Venezuela. Basing his analysis on traditional principles of justice, he outlines some important points to keep in mind in any project of transitioning from socialism to a more just political and economic model. Liberation should ing soon for Venezuela. After liberation e celebration. Almost immediately e justice. Punishing the culprits will be difficult, but it will be easier than making restitution...
‘Is it OK to still have children?’
Is it morally permissible to have children? That question – which should have gone out with “What’s your sign?” or “Who shot J.R.?” in the 1980s – e roaring back in a United States in which the birthrate continually hits new lows. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez asked the question in a video she posted on social media this weekend. AOC fears that children will degrade the environment through increasing our collective carbon footprint, and that a world ravaged by climate change would...
Fmr. Swedish prime minister warns Bernie Sanders about socialism
After video footage surfaced of Senator Bernie Sanders extolling the Soviet Union’s cultural and youth programs, the former prime minister of Sweden threw cold water on the idea that socialism builds sound societies. The tweet by Carl Bildt is the latest intervention by Nordic nations to divert the United States from adopting Marxist policies. As the 77-year-old Vermont senator announced his presidential ambitions, a string of videos emerged showing Sanders supporting Castro’s Cuba, Ortega’s Nicaragua, and the existence of breadlines....
Lessons from Thoreau’s ‘Walden’ in economics and life
When I first read Walden I was in the woods. In the Kitchel Lindquist Dunes Preserve to be precise which is also where I first read The Idiot and, amusingly, Dune. I spent a lot of time walking around alone in the woods in my childhood and adolescence so it was only natural that one day I would stumble upon the great classic of wandering around alone in the woods. When I returned from the woods the day I read...
Catholic hospital can’t fire doctor for violating morality: Court
The Roman Catholic Church cannot hold its employees accountable if they break their contractual obligation to live by the Church’s teachings, a German court has ruled. In an Orwellian twist, the court ruled that firing a baptized Catholic from a Catholic institution for violating Catholic teachings constitutes religious discrimination. Germany’s Federal Labor Court (the Bundesarbeitsgericht) decided on Wednesday that St. Vinzenz Hospital in Düsseldorf impermissibly fired a doctor who got divorced and remarried. The nonprofit hospital, which is under the...
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved