Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
‘Win-win denial’: The roots of zero-sum thinking
‘Win-win denial’: The roots of zero-sum thinking
Mar 15, 2026 10:13 AM

A new study shows that zero-sum thinking is pervasive across society, with roots in the ways we tend to think about our neighbors and the economy.

Read More…

One of the basic insights of economics is that trade is mutually beneficial, making both parties better off than they were before. It’s a proposition about human exchange that stretches back to Adam Smith’s foundational treatise, “The Wealth of Nations.”

“Man has almost constant occasion for the help of his brethren, and it is in vain for him to expect it from their benevolence only,” Smith wrote in 1776. “He will be far more likely to prevail if he can interest their self-love in his favour, and show them that it is for their own advantage to do for him what he requires of them. Whoever offers to another a bargain of any kind, proposes to do this.”

The abounding growth of our global economy underscores this truth, showing how trade turns work into fellowship, as well as fellowship into flourishing. Among economists, there is almost universal agreement on the matter, whether one looks to free-marketers like Milton Friedman or welfare-state liberals like Paul Krugman.

Yet, somehow, a contradictory myth continues to persist and pervade, one which frames economic exchange as a zero-sum game wherein one person’s gain is necessarily another person’s loss. In “The Good Society,” Acton’s educational film series, Michael Miller explains the fallacy as follows:

“One of the mistakes we often make when we think about trade is to view it as a win-lose proposition, instead of mutually beneficial. This is the idea that success can e at the expense of others; for every winner, there must be a loser. This is the fallacy called the “zero-sum game,” where we imagine the economy as a pie, and if one person has a bigger piece, that leaves a smaller piece for someone else.”

“…The problem with the zero-sum game is that it fails to acknowledge the mutual benefit of trade and that the pie can grow. As productivity increases, or as new innovations and inventions take off, the pie can expand. This means that everyone’s share can get bigger, and this is what we call economic growth.”

So, if the evidence of such growth is clear, and if the academic consensus clearly corresponds, why does zero-sum thinking continue to thrive among non-economists?

It’s a question at the center of a new study in which researchers Samuel G.B. Johnson, Jiewen Zhang, and Frank C. Keil explore the psychological roots of what they call “win-win denial.” For whatever reason, zero-sum thinking “appears to be endemic in people’s thinking about economic matters,” the authors write, whether applied to day-to-day transactions at the grocery store or voting choices on matters of public policy.

Drawing from a range of previous research, the authors highlight how far the phenomenon truly reaches, pointing to something persistent in the human psyche:

“Laypeople tend to believe that more panies are less socially responsible, when the true correlation is just the opposite. Negotiators often perceive themselves as carving up a “fixed pie,” decreasing the chances of a successful e. People believe that the government cannot benefit one group without harming another and are particularly inclined to think in zero-sum ways about international trade and immigration.

“But zero-sum thinking also seems to be psychologically natural, occurring across many countries and political orientations, though manifesting differently among liberals and conservatives. Zero-sum thinking has been noted in numerous settings (albeit not always fallaciously), including students’ thinking about grades, reasoners’ thinking about evidence, consumers’ thinking about product features, and even couples’ thinking about love.”

The study is centered around four separate experiments, wherein participants were asked to offer value judgments about specific consumer-driven trades (e.g., “Sally purchasing a shirt from Tony’s store”). In each case, participants were ultimately asked “whether each party to the transaction was better off or worse off afterwards.” The conclusion?

“These studies revealed that win-win denial is pervasive, with buyers consistently seen as less likely to benefit from transactions than sellers,” the authors concluded. “… Overall, the overwhelming majority of participants claimed that at least some of the parties did not benefit from one or more exchanges.”

To understand why, the authors weigh several possibilities, concluding that much of it can be explained by specific psychological mechanisms.

First, it appears as though many people give way to “mercantilist theories of monly confusing wealth for money:

“Across all studies buyers were consistently seen as less likely to benefit from exchange than sellers, and barters were often seen as not benefitting either party. This is consistent with intuitive mercantilism—the idea that a person’s welfare is determined by their monetary wealth, not by mand of useful goods and services. Perceived benefit flows with currency, so that sellers are seen as better-off, buyers as worse-off, and traders as experiencing no change. Despite perennial attempts to conquer mercantilist thinking by economists, this sort of thinking may be so cognitively natural that even extensive economics education does not stamp it out. In our experiments, mercantilist thinking also manifested in a smaller degree of win–win denial when payments were described in terms of time rather than money.”

Second, many tend to project their own personal preferences and notions of value onto others, “failing to observe that people do not arbitrarily enter exchanges”:

“Win–win denial seems to be exacerbated by issues in our theory of mind. Specifically, people are naïve realists, making a perspective-taking error in which they interpret their own preferences as ground truth, neglecting that others have different preferences and reasons for their actions. Merely reminding people that the buyers and traders had reasons for their choices (even empty reasons such as “Mary wanted the chocolate bar”) reduced the incidence of win–win denial… Making the preference of buyers and traders more salient reduced win–win denial, as did asking participants to rate the parties’ perceived gain or loss. Together, these results suggest that people do not spontaneously reflect on the fact that parties to exchanges have reasons for their behavior, leading them to discount potential gains from trade.”

The study considers other possibilities as well (“evolutionary mismatch,” confusion over bargain quality, etc.). But while some of these may play some role, each is ruled out as a root cause. And yet, as the authors conclude, there is still so much left to explore.

For example, how do breakdowns in social trust alter our subconscious beliefs about sellers, businesses, and other economic institutions? Do our suspicions about exploitation or generosity correspond with different seasons of economic crises or prosperity? Does the more recent bureaucratization of big business breed more cynicism about where “value” ultimately resides and who determines what? Or what mon attitudes toward our fellow buyers? mon is it for us to distrust our neighbors’ ability to know their best interests? Do these same findings apply to other areas beyond economic policy? Does a similar zero-sum bias exist at the heart of anti-immigrant sentiment, for example?

This study offers just one introductory glimpse into the roots of such thinking, but in doing so, it reminds us that mon disputes over economic issues are rooted in deeper attitudes about the human person and the basic nature of human relationships in economic life (and beyond). As Acton’s PovertyCure primer states:

“The zero-sum fallacy is rooted in a pessimistic and, often materialistic, view of human beings as consumers. But a view enriched by economic history and theology positions human persons not merely as mouths devouring the Earth’s resources, but as productive gardeners and sub-creators imprinted with God’s divine creative spark.

“While God alone can createex nihilo,Scripture reveals to us with clarity our responsibility to participate in the creative process of cultivating His garden bringing forth from itnewfruits. ‘Be fruitful,’ God says to Adam.”

We need not be experts in economics to resist and counter the win-win denial of our age. Instead, we can embrace and promote a view of creation and human creators that is marked by a faith in abundance, not cynicism and scarcity.

Far from viewing ourselves bative actors in a zero-sum struggle — buyers vs. sellers, employees vs. employers — we can reimagine our work in the global economy as creators and servants, collaborators and contributors, working together with our neighbors to paint a grand picture of God’s abundance and harmony in society.

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
Roadmap out of poverty
The last of many gems here: “Here’s Williams’ roadmap out of poverty: Complete high school; get a job, any kind of a job; get married before having children; and be a law-abiding citizen. Among both black and white Americans so described, the poverty rate is in the single digits.” — Walter Williams HT: The Anchoress ...
We must kill religion to save it
There are so many things wrong with this news item from Canada, I hardly know where to begin. But I’ll make perhaps the most obvious point of contradiction. This guy is “worried that the separation between church and state is under threat,” so he wants to initiate state control over religion, especially “given the inertia of the Catholic Church.” I’m not at all familiar with Canadian law. Is there something in Canada similar to the American Establishment Clause? ...
CAFTA vs. Bishops?
Have you noticed the most recent television ad against CAFTA, the Central American Free Trade Agreement? In it, detractors very wittily capitalize on the rhyme with NAFTA and present it as another ‘sucking sound’ of jobs leaving America. It seems to me a little sad these folks cannot think of actual arguments against this policy and must resort to 13-year-old Ross Perot witticisms to make their point. Or do they? To bring in a moral perspective, Democrats in Congress asked...
CAFTA vs. ‘Distributive Justice’
The Interfaith Working Group on Trade and Investment, a Washington-based amalgam of left-liberal religious activists, has asked the U.S. Congress to reject ratification of the Central American Free Trade Agreement. Here’s a representative statement: “Religious leaders boldly stood with impoverished people and called today for sustainable development in Central America and respect for the integrity of Creation.” Some of our best friends are impoverished? In this group’s statements, there’s scarcely an intelligible economic thought to be found or, for that...
Mendel’s seeds
Gregor Mendel, a monk and Abbot of Brünn, was born on this date in 1822. Mendel’s work opened up the promising and troubling field of genetics. He is often called “the father of genetics” for his study of the inheritance of traits in pea plants. For information about what might be identified as the contemporary offspring of Mendel’s work, see the Acton Environmental Newsletter on Genetically Modified Foods, including Rev. Michael Oluwatuyi’s “How Will We Feed Africa?” and my article,...
On the passing of an instrument of God’s peace
Hard as it is for me to believe, we are quickly approaching the first anniversary of my father’s death. He had struggled with kidney cancer for a number of years, and had in fact lived a relatively healthy and active life well beyond medical expectations. But as time went on, the disease gradually took its toll, and in September of 2004, my father passed away. I remember very clearly the day of his final trip home from the hospital, after...
Drunk pilots going to prison
Thomas Cloyd, 47, of Peoria, Ariz., and co-pilot Christopher Hughes, 44, of Leander, Texas, have been sentenced after a June 8 conviction for being drunk when they settled into the cockpit of a Phoenix-bound America West jetliner in 2002. The two were arrested before the plane took off just after it had pushed away from the gate. Circuit Judge David Young said he had no sympathy for Cloyd, and asked the pilots, “What were you thinking of?” Cloyd was sentenced...
Textual interpretation
A week ago Stanley Fish, a law professor at Florida International University, wrote an op-ed in The New York Times about the principles of constitutional interpretation, especially as represented by Justice Antonin Scalia. Fish takes issue especially with the notion that the text can have meaning “as it exists apart from anyone’s intention.” Fish essentially denies that texts are things that can have meanings in themselves, and it amounts to a philosophical denial of realism. Part of Fish’s problem is...
‘We choose to go to the moon.’
“a magnificent desolation” On September 12, 1962, President John F. Kennedy spoke these words in a speech at Rice University: There is no strife, no prejudice, no national conflict in outer space as yet. Its hazards are hostile to us all. Its conquest deserves the best of all mankind, and its opportunity for peaceful cooperation may e again. But why, some say, the moon? Why choose this as our goal? And they may well ask why climb the highest mountain....
Labor (dis)union
The New York Times reports this morning that “leaders of four of the country’s largest labor unions announced on Sunday that they would boycott this week’s A.F.L.-C.I.O. convention, and officials from two of those unions, the service employees and the Teamsters, said the action was a prelude to their full withdrawal from the federation on Monday.” The withdrawal is the culmination of a period of dissatisfaction with the direction of big labor in the US. The leaders of the dissident...
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved