Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
‘Win-win denial’: The roots of zero-sum thinking
‘Win-win denial’: The roots of zero-sum thinking
Apr 20, 2026 5:34 AM

A new study shows that zero-sum thinking is pervasive across society, with roots in the ways we tend to think about our neighbors and the economy.

Read More…

One of the basic insights of economics is that trade is mutually beneficial, making both parties better off than they were before. It’s a proposition about human exchange that stretches back to Adam Smith’s foundational treatise, “The Wealth of Nations.”

“Man has almost constant occasion for the help of his brethren, and it is in vain for him to expect it from their benevolence only,” Smith wrote in 1776. “He will be far more likely to prevail if he can interest their self-love in his favour, and show them that it is for their own advantage to do for him what he requires of them. Whoever offers to another a bargain of any kind, proposes to do this.”

The abounding growth of our global economy underscores this truth, showing how trade turns work into fellowship, as well as fellowship into flourishing. Among economists, there is almost universal agreement on the matter, whether one looks to free-marketers like Milton Friedman or welfare-state liberals like Paul Krugman.

Yet, somehow, a contradictory myth continues to persist and pervade, one which frames economic exchange as a zero-sum game wherein one person’s gain is necessarily another person’s loss. In “The Good Society,” Acton’s educational film series, Michael Miller explains the fallacy as follows:

“One of the mistakes we often make when we think about trade is to view it as a win-lose proposition, instead of mutually beneficial. This is the idea that success can e at the expense of others; for every winner, there must be a loser. This is the fallacy called the “zero-sum game,” where we imagine the economy as a pie, and if one person has a bigger piece, that leaves a smaller piece for someone else.”

“…The problem with the zero-sum game is that it fails to acknowledge the mutual benefit of trade and that the pie can grow. As productivity increases, or as new innovations and inventions take off, the pie can expand. This means that everyone’s share can get bigger, and this is what we call economic growth.”

So, if the evidence of such growth is clear, and if the academic consensus clearly corresponds, why does zero-sum thinking continue to thrive among non-economists?

It’s a question at the center of a new study in which researchers Samuel G.B. Johnson, Jiewen Zhang, and Frank C. Keil explore the psychological roots of what they call “win-win denial.” For whatever reason, zero-sum thinking “appears to be endemic in people’s thinking about economic matters,” the authors write, whether applied to day-to-day transactions at the grocery store or voting choices on matters of public policy.

Drawing from a range of previous research, the authors highlight how far the phenomenon truly reaches, pointing to something persistent in the human psyche:

“Laypeople tend to believe that more panies are less socially responsible, when the true correlation is just the opposite. Negotiators often perceive themselves as carving up a “fixed pie,” decreasing the chances of a successful e. People believe that the government cannot benefit one group without harming another and are particularly inclined to think in zero-sum ways about international trade and immigration.

“But zero-sum thinking also seems to be psychologically natural, occurring across many countries and political orientations, though manifesting differently among liberals and conservatives. Zero-sum thinking has been noted in numerous settings (albeit not always fallaciously), including students’ thinking about grades, reasoners’ thinking about evidence, consumers’ thinking about product features, and even couples’ thinking about love.”

The study is centered around four separate experiments, wherein participants were asked to offer value judgments about specific consumer-driven trades (e.g., “Sally purchasing a shirt from Tony’s store”). In each case, participants were ultimately asked “whether each party to the transaction was better off or worse off afterwards.” The conclusion?

“These studies revealed that win-win denial is pervasive, with buyers consistently seen as less likely to benefit from transactions than sellers,” the authors concluded. “… Overall, the overwhelming majority of participants claimed that at least some of the parties did not benefit from one or more exchanges.”

To understand why, the authors weigh several possibilities, concluding that much of it can be explained by specific psychological mechanisms.

First, it appears as though many people give way to “mercantilist theories of monly confusing wealth for money:

“Across all studies buyers were consistently seen as less likely to benefit from exchange than sellers, and barters were often seen as not benefitting either party. This is consistent with intuitive mercantilism—the idea that a person’s welfare is determined by their monetary wealth, not by mand of useful goods and services. Perceived benefit flows with currency, so that sellers are seen as better-off, buyers as worse-off, and traders as experiencing no change. Despite perennial attempts to conquer mercantilist thinking by economists, this sort of thinking may be so cognitively natural that even extensive economics education does not stamp it out. In our experiments, mercantilist thinking also manifested in a smaller degree of win–win denial when payments were described in terms of time rather than money.”

Second, many tend to project their own personal preferences and notions of value onto others, “failing to observe that people do not arbitrarily enter exchanges”:

“Win–win denial seems to be exacerbated by issues in our theory of mind. Specifically, people are naïve realists, making a perspective-taking error in which they interpret their own preferences as ground truth, neglecting that others have different preferences and reasons for their actions. Merely reminding people that the buyers and traders had reasons for their choices (even empty reasons such as “Mary wanted the chocolate bar”) reduced the incidence of win–win denial… Making the preference of buyers and traders more salient reduced win–win denial, as did asking participants to rate the parties’ perceived gain or loss. Together, these results suggest that people do not spontaneously reflect on the fact that parties to exchanges have reasons for their behavior, leading them to discount potential gains from trade.”

The study considers other possibilities as well (“evolutionary mismatch,” confusion over bargain quality, etc.). But while some of these may play some role, each is ruled out as a root cause. And yet, as the authors conclude, there is still so much left to explore.

For example, how do breakdowns in social trust alter our subconscious beliefs about sellers, businesses, and other economic institutions? Do our suspicions about exploitation or generosity correspond with different seasons of economic crises or prosperity? Does the more recent bureaucratization of big business breed more cynicism about where “value” ultimately resides and who determines what? Or what mon attitudes toward our fellow buyers? mon is it for us to distrust our neighbors’ ability to know their best interests? Do these same findings apply to other areas beyond economic policy? Does a similar zero-sum bias exist at the heart of anti-immigrant sentiment, for example?

This study offers just one introductory glimpse into the roots of such thinking, but in doing so, it reminds us that mon disputes over economic issues are rooted in deeper attitudes about the human person and the basic nature of human relationships in economic life (and beyond). As Acton’s PovertyCure primer states:

“The zero-sum fallacy is rooted in a pessimistic and, often materialistic, view of human beings as consumers. But a view enriched by economic history and theology positions human persons not merely as mouths devouring the Earth’s resources, but as productive gardeners and sub-creators imprinted with God’s divine creative spark.

“While God alone can createex nihilo,Scripture reveals to us with clarity our responsibility to participate in the creative process of cultivating His garden bringing forth from itnewfruits. ‘Be fruitful,’ God says to Adam.”

We need not be experts in economics to resist and counter the win-win denial of our age. Instead, we can embrace and promote a view of creation and human creators that is marked by a faith in abundance, not cynicism and scarcity.

Far from viewing ourselves bative actors in a zero-sum struggle — buyers vs. sellers, employees vs. employers — we can reimagine our work in the global economy as creators and servants, collaborators and contributors, working together with our neighbors to paint a grand picture of God’s abundance and harmony in society.

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
The Awakening of Jennifer Van Arsdale: A novel take on conservative ideas
George Leef has crafted a work of fiction that chronicles the personal and ideological transformation of a D.C. reporter. But does he convince the reader? Read More… The year 2016 brought the progressive extreme of American politics into national discussion. Bernie Sanders and Democratic socialism became familiar phrases; Elizabeth Warren promised free daycare and free college; Andrew Yang’s one-issue focus made universal basic e seem plausible. What would America have looked like if one of these progressives had won the...
‘What Shall Men Remember?’: Relearning the forgotten history of Memorial Day
A society’s desire to respect its protectors can help heal cultural and racial divisions. Read More… Memorial Day has historically been a day set aside memorate the millions of Americans fallen in war. Although the day now involves celebrating America’s war dead regardless of color or creed, what many may not know is that Memorial Day’s origins are actually deeply linked to America’s struggle with racism. Although our racial struggles continue, they were once far worse and we would do...
Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness reminds us who really is in control: Disney
Now that therapy and self-affirmation have e the goals of all storytelling, the only thing to eliminate is any idea of fate, providence, or patriarchy. Suddenly, everything es possible. Especially living nightmares. Read More… I want to put before you three facts of importance for storytelling today, and for our self-understanding, which is what we want out of it. First, fantasy stories now dominate entertainment in Hollywood and beyond. Second, a new generation of Americans is being raised on Marvel...
What G.K. Chesterton can teach us about rational discourse
Our social media age seems to promote only those voices who best express outrage, promote fear, and discharge bile. What if there were another way to engage even in highly contentious debate? Read More… This Sunday, May 29, marks 148 years since the birth of English author G.K. Chesterton. Although he was baptized into the Church of England, Chesterton’s family was not particularly devout and his faith didn’t develop until later in life. After his marriage in 1901, he returned...
Chinese oppression of the Uyghurs goes global
Even when this ethnic and religious minority finds safe haven outside China, the Chinese Communist Party still manages to harass and threaten them. The United States, as well as other nations of goodwill, should not tolerate the exporting of repression by a foreign power. Read More… Under Xi Jinping, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has returned to its Maoist past. Both Xi and Mao Zedong promoted party and especially personal rule. Both sought to extinguish even the hint of...
Twitter will be no worse with owner Elon Musk, and probably no better
Who buys the 17th-most-popular social media platform in the world is a cause of great concern to relatively few people, who unfortunately have the loudest voices. That’s the real problem, and one Musk almost certainly cannot fix. Read More… Elon Musk has already created the first truly successful electric car. He wants pany SpaceX to put men on Mars. Musk himself has occasionally joked that he wants to die on Mars, just not on impact. Successfully landing and establishing an...
Why Nineteen Eighty-Four still matters
If so many of the catchphrases from George Orwell’s dystopian classic seem cliched today, it’s because there is endless fodder for their application. And while not everything he feared came true, Orwell’s greatness lies not in predicting the future but in changing it. Read More… June 8 marks the anniversary of George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four. That a greater gap separates us from 1984 than 1984 from Nineteen-Eighty Four’s 1949 publication staggers. The book, at least in terms of pundits’ invoking...
Finland is the bellwether for religious liberty in Europe
A bishop in the Lutheran state church in Finland and a member of Parliament may have been found not guilty in a trial that sought to punish them for espousing traditional Christian views, but the battle for freedom of religion and speech in Finland is not over and may have long-standing consequences for liberty throughout Europe. Read More… At the end of March 2022, Finnish member of Parliament Päivi Räsänen and Bishop Juhana Pohjola of the Evangelical Lutheran Mission Diocese...
Boris Johnson: The great survivor?
British prime minister Boris Johnson has survived a confidence vote in Parliament after weathering months of bad press. He may still be standing, but is he crippled nevertheless? Read More… The vote is in. Boris survived—or did he? The 359 members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party voted by 211 to 148 that they had confidence in Boris Johnson as the leader of the party and prime minister of the United Kingdom. That was a surprise. A much bigger margin of...
‘A Catholic Pilgrimage Through American History’ worth taking
A new book offers a travelogue of Catholic pilgrimage sites that provides a short history of the church’s own pilgrimage through a land it once sought to conquer but then had to modate itself to. Like everyone’s history, it’s filled with heroes and villains. Tread carefully. Read More… Kevin Schmiesing’s A Catholic Pilgrimage Through American History: People and Places that Shaped the Church in the United States is a surprisingly enjoyable book. Surprising, not because I expected his writing to...
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved